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从企业个体角度来看,疫情导致了海外各国经济的崩溃,包括越南和印度,从而造成了他们制造业的停工。这导致全球大量订单涌入我国,我国的生产制造业不得不全力以赴进行生产。上游企业疯狂赚钱,但由于海外需求的存在,下游企业可以容忍上游的涨价。同时,由于有持续的订单,并且出口还能获得退税,海外需求导致国内制造业开始盲目扩张。只要有赚钱的机会,大家都争先恐后地加入其中,导致越来越多的小工厂投入生产,日夜不停。这不仅打压了商品价格,还增加了大量的产能。然而,问题也随之而来。一旦海外市场走出疫情,恢复了产能,增量订单将不再持续到来,而国内因为解决增量订单而增加的产能则无法销售出去。这将导致大规模的经济萧条,成为压垮大多数企业的最后一根稻草。

The pandemic has deeply impacted the economies of Vietnam and India, leading to the closure of their manufacturing industries. Consequently, there has been a surge in global orders being placed in China. To meet this demand, China's manufacturing sector is operating at full capacity, and suppliers are eager to capitalize on the opportunity. However, this increase in demand has caused prices to rise. Nonetheless, downstream enterprises can tolerate these price hikes due to continuous foreign orders and the ability to receive export refunds. As a result, there has been an uncontrolled expansion of the domestic manufacturing industry. In the pursuit of profits, numerous small factories have entered the market, resulting in an oversupply of goods and excess production capacity. Once other countries recover from the pandemic and restore their manufacturing capabilities, the incremental foreign orders will diminish, leaving domestic factories with surplus production capacity. This situation will ultimately lead to a severe economic downturn, potentially devastating a majority of enterprises.


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